Mark Clement

10 (Unexpected) Church Trends For The Next Decade

Sam Rainer produced this list in January of 2011, a year ago. I'm not advocating that any of this is going to happen, but thought it might be worth revisiting to see what if any progress or movement is happening in any of these areas. Either way it's a fascinating look at what may be to come across the North American church landscape in the coming decade. Enjoy and I would love to hear your thoughts on the subject:

Leaders move followers toward something — goals off in the distance and in the future. Allow me to risk being doubly wrong — sharing with you not only 10 church trends for the next 10 years, but ones that may be unexpected to some. I believe these trends are critical for leaders to know as they lead their churches to advance God’s kingdom in the coming decade.

1. The heterogeneous church explodes

Perhaps the most important, this first trend involves not only pragmatic issues, but theological issues as well. As the younger generation ages, they will not be represented by the homogeneous unit principal that was championed in the early years of the church growth movement. Basically, this principal states that people desire to worship and serve in church with similar people, and the best way to reach people is with others who are similar.

Boomers began to change this thinking. Many sought diversity — they intentionally championed it. For many Millennials, diversity (or heterogeneity) is normal. In the future, homogenous units will still form — there’s a reason why people attend Star Trek conventions (though it is lost on me). People with common interests, characteristics, life stages and languages will still gravitate towards each other. The difference with the younger generation is that these divides will not be as distinct, specifically in ethnic terms. The United States will be minority white by 2042 — preschools much sooner, by 2021. The Millennial generation will gravitate towards heterogeneous churches because they represent what is normal in their generation.

The diverse church will explode in growth over the next 10 years. And instead of looking at this trend through the lens of pragmatic church growth practices, I believe it needs to be viewed as a picture of the Gospel. What man segregates, the Gospel unifies. Get on board with this trend not because it will grow your church, but rather because it was God’s plan for his church from the beginning.

2. Church attendance continues to decline

People do not wake up one Sunday and decide to leave their church. They phase out; they begin by attending less frequently. This problem is pervasive throughout the North American church. While myriad individual, spiritual reasons exist why people attend less, decreasing frequency of attendance is the single biggest macro reason for overall church declines. For example, a church has 400 people that attend four out of four weeks. This attendance frequency equates to an average attendance of 400. But if this same church has 400 people that attend two out of four weeks, average attendance is cut in half to 200.

To reduce the problem of declining attendance frequency, church leaders will begin to track not only how many attend, but also how frequently they attend as well. I am not advocating legalistic superciliousness — that every time the church doors are open people must be there. But the family that once attended almost every week and now attends 10 times a year is gradually leaving the church.

3. The conservative drift draws more

While the overall attendance decline will hit churches of all types and denominations, growing churches will typically be the more theologically conservative congregations. The Millennials will either go to conservative churches, or they will not go at all.

4. Deep teaching gets more popular 

Coupled with a theologically conservative drift, many growing churches will get deeper theologically and more popular. Many young adult dropouts left the church because they desired deeper teaching. The superficial anomalies will most likely still exist, but churches that challenge people to greater biblical depths will proliferate while others languish in their own shallowness.

5. Boomer ministries boom

Boomers will be a different type of senior. In fact, don’t call Boomers “seniors.” They are not part of their parents’ generation — they aren’t seniors. How senior adult ministry was done with the previous generation will not be as favorable with the Boomer generation. There is just as large a generation gap between the Boomers and the Greatest Generation as there is between Boomers and their children. Boomers don’t get on buses and visit places with their friends. If you’re wondering why your “senior” ministry keeps getting smaller and older, and no “fresh faces” are joining, it’s because Boomers don’t want to be lumped in with their parents.

6. Ministries to families grow

The largest generation is no longer the Boomers. The Millennials now lay claim to that title. According to LifeWay Research, the number one priority among the Millennial generation is family. Millennials desire to stay connected with not only their immediate family, but their extended family as well. Ministries to families have always been important but will increase as this youngest generation begins their own.

7. Staff positions evolve

For churches to remain healthy, staff structures will change between now and the next 10 years. As children’s ministries become more diverse, children’s ministers with experience in and a passion for diversity will become more important. As multi-site churches become more prevalent with more sites, administrators will need to become more skilled at managing a network of ministries. As churches refocus their programs and activities around a tight discipleship process, the old paradigm of hierarchical structures will fade as a plurality of local church leadership emerges.

8. The importance of the church building is renewed

The church is not a building, but a building is where the church meets. And buildings are the most expensive part of discipleship. In North America people go to buildings to do things — they go to the game in an arena, to the doctor at her office, to school in the classroom, and to the movie at the theater. Part of our culture is the expectation that things happen in buildings. This cultural expectation is true of the church — people go to church to be discipled.

Not all churches have buildings, nor am I advocating that they should. But church facilities are one of the most expensive and most critical tools church leaders use in shepherding God’s people. In short, buildings are important pieces in God’s mission of building his kingdom. Many building and design firms are becoming more intentional about creating space with the purpose of making disciples. In the next ten years, this focus will continue to grow. And churches will begin to view their buildings as part of their discipleship process.

9. Charismatic leadership becomes less prevalent

Charismatic leadership is based on the personality and charisma of a senior leader. Transformational leadership is based on the collective vision of an entire group. Both have their place, even in the church. A popular teacher should not lessen his or her charisma to detract followers. When the entire ministry structure is in place to elevate the leader, however, is when major problems arise.Charismatic teachers and leaders will always exist, but transformational leadership will become more popular in the coming decade.

Transformational leaders inspire people to reach for a common goal. They develop, train, and mentor future talent. They empower people to accomplish tasks. Creativity, transparency and authenticity are valued. Leaders and followers alike know what the goal is and how to achieve it. These leaders show everyone the big picture and why it’s important. The next 10 years will bring a fresh focus on local pastors leading local churches to become focused on a local mission.

10. Growth in video-venues slows down

The trend towards more transformational leadership will quell the popularity of video-venues in which a single teaching pastor is projected to multiple sites. The Internet and podcast boom brought with it a cultural wave of electronic teaching. While this trend has been positive — more sound teaching is readily available (for free) than ever before. Eventually, however, the wired generation will desire a more local, personal touch than the man-on-the-screen. By 2020, more campuses at multi-site churches will feature a campus pastor who teaches, and more people will seek out this type of local connection.

Ten years and 10 trends. Perhaps a few were more unexpected than others. I’m just one prognosticator; there is no guarantee for any of these predictions. But it is the responsibility of local church leaders to have a vision for their churches’ futures. Now is the time to start planning.  

This post was originally published by Church Executive Magazine on 1/3/11.

Share this:

Sam Rainer serves the local church as a pastor, writer, speaker, and researcher. Sam is president of Rainer Research, a research and consulting firm dedicated to providing answers for better church health. He lives with his wife, Erin, and daughter, Maggie, in Murray, KY where he serves at First Baptist Church.

More from Sam Rainer or visit Sam at samrainer.wordpress.com

We Gotta Celebrate

Over the last 60 days me and my bros at First Hattiesburg (the coolest church you may never have heard of) and I got to talking about their annual end of year report, etc... We quickly determined that was way too dry and the amazing things that God had done this past year warranted something bigger. So we turned a stodgy piece of paper into a video. It's nothing crazy fancy, but it brings to life and puts a face on the lives that have been changed, the impact that has been made. It's no longer a report, but a celebration.

I've worked with hundreds of churches over the years and this is something that is frequently missed. 'What's Next' is vitally important, but every so often you MUST stop and reflect and celebrate. Without it, the 'what's next' becomes nothing more than meaningless busy work.

FH will show this Sunday in their worship and it will be a powerful moment.

Church Coffee Shop/Cafe' Names

Yesterday, for no other reason than sheer morbid curiosity, I asked the world to share some of the best and worst church coffee shop/cafe names with me. I got tons of feedback on every platform. My contributors were diverse but unfortunately the names were not. Apparently, caffeine kills creativity.

The names that were way too common and way too predictable were:

He-Brews (by far the most common)

Common Grounds (a close second)

Jehovah Java (third among my contributors)

Higher Grounds

Holy Grounds (btw, to the dude that felt the need to explain the multiple meanings of this title, um, thanks, I got it)

Heavenly Roast

Heavenly Brew

Java With Jesus (a Baptist, seminary trained pastor, no doubt)

Holy Aroma

Cafe' Divine

The most unusual and creative name I heard today (and my personal fav) was 'The Angry Lama' from Journey Church in Conifer, CO. There's a story there and I want to hear it @knockover711. Wouldn't mind perusing your new book either (hint, hint). Looks really interesting.

So anyway, there you go. Read 'em and weep. I know I did.

This list is by no means exhaustive. Would LOVE to hear some more, good or bad. Get on it.

 

FREE Online Conference For Church Finances

• Is breakeven ministry getting old?
• Are you sick of saying no to the God-given dream because of a lack of finances?
• Are you tired of cutting the outreach budget because it’s too expensive?
• Are you stressed because you can’t hire the next staff position you desperately need?
• Are you frustrated that you can start that facility project because there’s no margin in the budget?

Broke or break-even ministry is built on a belief system that has spread like the plague among church leaders. You keep telling yourself that when the economy picks up, when you get ahead, or when that big gift comes in, you’ll launch that ministry.

So the food pantry stays in the ideas folder on your computer.

The outreach campaign remains a picture on your phone.

The idea stays on the whiteboard.

You are losing out on launching your dream.

But the good news is that you can take intentional, practical steps to eliminate the funding barriers.

What would happen in your church if you DID hire the right person to fill that ministry position?  How would your community respond if you really DID open that food pantry or renovate the children’s area.  What would happen if you quit breaking even and broke through to the next level.

At this online event, you will learn principles that we’ve seen work in hundreds of churches.   You will walk away with a framework to move people’s giving from one level to the next.  You will learn easy-to-implement ideas and strategies that call people to action.

This is NOT about getting more money.  It’s about doing more ministry.This is NOT about breaking even or balancing the budget.  It’s about breaking through.

You might be thinking:

• “You just don’t know my people.”  The bottom line is that while your church has a unique mission and culture, people are generally the same.  People ARE different, but we all share some of the same hopes, dreams and fears.

• “We’re not in a wealthy area.”  Pastors in urban churches say that people in the city don’t have any money.  Pastors in rural areas talk about how hard it is to get people to give.  Suburban pastors complain about how overextended their people are.

• “Our church is different.” While it may be true that your church has a focused mission, God has called you to love him and reach people.  That bottom-line mission is for churches of all shapes, sizes and styles.  Stop using your unique calling as an excuse for low funding.

These 180 minutes could change the culture and direction of your church, and free you up to do more ministry.

Register HERE!

Why No One Is Reading Your Church's Mass Emails

This info is from my bro Casey Graham and Giving Rocket. Check it out to find out why noone is reading your mass emails:

 

Why So Many Church Staffers Are Unhappy: Generations

If you're just joining this conversation let me encourage to go back to the first post in the series to get caught up (read it here).

When dealing with the subject of unhappy, frustrated, and discontented pastoral staffs, the gigantic elephant in the room is their relationship with their senior pastor or other high level pastoral staff that may be over them. Now before we take one more tiny step, let's be super clear that we are not and will not be bashing senior pastors. So if you're a bitter former staffer and you've been waiting for someone to take a shot at these guys for you, you're looking in the wrong place 'cause homey don't play that. I know there are some pastors out there who are real jerks, but I believe with all my heart that the VAST majority of pastors are good people who have the same struggles and issues as the rest of us and they are faithfully doing their best and learning as they go. The same applies to all of the staffers as well, you've got some bad eggs, but the vast majority are not. So in the spirit of 'learning', let's talk about some of the factors that contribute to the breakdown between senior leaders and staffers. I believe one of the top 3 is tied to the difference in generations.

With the advent of Generation X (my generation) and eventually Generation Y or the Millenials, no doubt there was a major cultural shift in the way we relate, process information, approach situations, etc... Some older leaders have embraced the new paradigms that come with leading these folks and their relationships and their churches have thrived. But most, if they were honest, would say they have at the very least struggled to get their hands oround these new relational models, and that struggle has led to some conflict along the way. Even senior leaders from these same generations struggle with these issues once they assume leadership. While there is definitely some burden on all senior leaders to adapt and change, there also needs to be more flexibility among the younger staffers as well. Here are some of the key characteristics of these newest generations and some suggestions on how both sides can work better together.

1. Ownership - X and Y'ers want their lives to count for something. They don't just want a job, they want to be part of a movement, to have real impact. To that end they want to be highly involved in the process. They want to contribute, to be asked what they think, to be given some responsibility, to be consulted. This  flies directly in the face of the old model of get in line and do what you're told. These generations don't automatically trust those in leadership so they want to see for themselves. They want ownership. They don't want to be told what to do, rather they want to help decide what needs to be done. And if they don't get those opportunities, they feel unnecessary and taken for granted which leads to frustration and discontentment.The obvious takeaway for leaders is to facilitate situations where your team is valued and allowed to contribute. Don't make decisions in a vaccuum. This doesn't always mean formal meetings either. Pop in to their offices and throw things around. And don't just ask their opinion and move on. Ask follow up questions. Why do they see things a certain way? How do certain directions make them feel? And don't do this simply as an exercise to appease your staff. Go in open and really listen to and consider what they are saying. They will feel valued and you are likely to gain some significan new insights. Staffers, know that this is a HUGE paradigm shift away from the models of prevoius generations. Be patient. Let your leaders know your willingness to help tackle and solve problems. Volunteer to deal with things that may even be outside of your area. Your persistence and your success in these things will help demonstrate the value to those above you.
   
2. Relationships - These generations are highly relational. They like to talk, hang out, share experiences, etc... They value time together. They often like to work in teams and they like to bounce ideas off of others. You'll often see them going to lunch together, hanging out in each others offices or in common areas. Don't dismiss this as wasted time. It is a very valuable process for them to work through situations to find optimal solutions. Join in these talks and watch how they work together, do less talking and more listening in these informal situations. Also, be intentional about spending quality time with your staff individually, in small groups and as a whole. And try not to talk about work, really get to know them and their families. This is such a basic thing but a lot of senior leaders miss this one. Staffers, don't wait for your leaders to do this. Take initiative and invite them over or out to dinner. You can very easily drive this process as well as they can.
   
3. Transparency - Openness is often tied more to personality than anything else, but X/Y'ers as a whole embrace this much more than previous generations. They hate formality and posturing. They want you to 'be real', to share what you are really thinking, to trust them to support you when you need help. While many previous generations would see this as a weakness, these guys see it as a huge strength to be able to put yourself out there. Obviously there is a time and place for this and we have to be wise and discerning about what needs to be shared and what doesn't. But when you exercise true transparency, more often than not it will act as a bonding moment with your team, a chance to really know each other and have each others backs. And by the way, it's incredibly freeing. One of the coolest ways this can play out is when a leader is willing to admit he was wrong about something. Of course that's one of the hardest things any of us ever has to do. But when we find the courage to do this, often times we'll discover that our team will love and respect us all the more going forward, because they know our heart is in the right place and that we'll own our stuff when necessary. Staffers, be aware that while this may be easy to do with your friends, doing it in the workplace is significantly tougher. Many more possible consequences at stake. So encourage your leadership to be transparent and commit to accepting them as they are. But be aware of how much is at stake for them and make it as safe an environment as possible.
4. At-a-boys - Every person on the planet likes to be encouraged and recognized for good work. But the Millenials in particular are practically addicted to it. To be fair, it's not their fault. It's their parents fault. Giving trophies and ribbons and certificates for every tiny accomplishment. Being rewarded just for showing up regardless of performance. Having elaborate ceremonies when they graduate kindergarten that put college commencements to shame. So when they enter the workforce at church or anywhere else, they are often shocked at the change in culture. It makes it hard for them to accept entry level pay, to be on the bottom of the totem pole, to not be valued to the nth degree. And it's our job as leaders to help them navigate this tough transition. To that end I think we need to be very conscious of where they are coming from and try to make sure we do acknowledge and thank them when they do make significant contributions. We also need to walk beside them and help train them as to how the real world works and be patient through the process. To those who came up as Millenials and reading this just became your aha moment of the day, again, not your fault. But take this information to heart and lower your expectations, just a little :)  Be motivated to earn you way into more and greater responsibility and don't expect it to be handed out like a little league participation trophy. If both ends of this spectrum can recognize why there is a gulf in between, we can much more easily find a way to bridge it.

This list could go on for quite a while, but I think these points give us enough to chew on for now. Think about all the conflicts you've had amongst your staff in recent years and how these simple things could have alleviated or eliminated those conflicts altogether. No time like the present to start.

What are some other thoughts related to the generational issue that affects our churches?

Why So Many Church Staffers Are Unhappy: Expectations

If you're just joining this conversation let me encourage to go back to the first post in the series to get caught up (read it here).

It's important to remember a couple of things as we dive deeper into this topic. First, that the focus of this series is on pastoral staff other than senior pastors. We hope to visit them as a unique group later on. Secondly, that this is a complex issue that will not be solved with a few simple blog posts. The goal here is to bring the issue into the light, help anyone going through this to know they are not alone, highlight some of the glaring contributing factors and give some basic info on how to deal with and hopefully change them. Simple enough, right? :)

I believe one of the key issues that lead to discontentment and unhappiness is that many people entering professional ministry for the first time have unrealistic expectations. It's easy to be swept up in the appeal that is ministry. People need you. Everybody knows you. They want your opinion. Your part of every meeting and important decision. Your spiritual and work and family life are all combined. You're in the know, the center of everything.

The problem is that these 'great' things about ministry are also the 'worst' things about ministry.

No question there is no way to fully prepare someone for the realities of ministry. It's like training soldiers for war. You can do everything possible, but there's nothing quite like the real thing. But I do think there are some things we could do better to help prepare those coming behind us.

1. We need to make it harder to become a pastor. This means doing a better job vetting those who present themselves for ordination, increasing the length of trial periods, giving them more responsibilites during these times to get a better feel for the realities, let them see how the sausage is made. This alone would weed out many who are attracted by the romance of ministry but may not have a true calling.
2. Better and more practical education. Our seminaries and Bible colleges have got to step up and do a better job here. Going to use an entire post to explore this issue in coming days.
3. More attention paid to wives and families of those entering ministry. Too often all of the training and emphasis is put on the person entering ministry. The reality is when one member of a family chooses this path, the whole family is choosing it as well and they need to be equipped and trained as much as possible for what is about to happen to them.
4. Ongoing support. Our denominations and networks need to recognize this issue and do something about it. Establish real mentorship programs. More ongoing training. Ask tough questions along the way. The worse thing we can do is leave people out there too long on their own. Got to stick together and help one another.

What are some of the unrealistic expectations you had coming into ministry and what if anything could have been done to better prepare you?

Check out the next post in this series HERE.

Why So Many Church Staffers Are Unhappy: By The Numbers

After posting the introduction to this topic last  Friday (read it here) I was blown away by the number of readers, comments, emails and DMs I received from pastors not only in America, but around the world. We've definitely hit a hot button issue here. So before we dive in to some of the overarching reasons for this trend, I wanted to give you some big picture perspective on the the sheer volume of the problem, a look at the numbers.

• 100% of pastors surveyed said they had a close associate or seminary buddy who had left the ministry because of burnout, conflict in their church, or from a moral failure.

• 1500-1800 pastors leave the ministry each month due to moral failure, spiritual burnout, or contention in their churches.

• 50% of pastors' marriages will end in divorce.

• 80% of pastors feel unqualified and discouraged in their role as pastor.

• 50% of pastors are so discouraged that they would leave the ministry if they could, but have no other way of making a living.

• 80% of seminary and Bible school graduates who enter the ministry will leave the ministry within the first five years.

• 70% of pastors constantly fight depression.

• Almost 40% polled said they have had an extra-marital affair since beginning their ministry.

• 90% said the ministry was completely different than what they thought it would be before they entered the ministry.

• 80% of adult children of pastors surveyed have had to seek professional help for depression.

• 70% of pastors do not have a close friend, confidant, or mentor.

• 95% of pastors do not regularly pray with their spouses.

• 80% of pastors surveyed spend less than fifteen minutes a day in prayer.

• 70% said the only time they spend studying the Word is when they are preparing their sermons.

While those of us who have been or still are on church staff may not be totally surprised by most of this information, it is still overwhelming and lies in stark contrast to all that we may have hoped ministry would be. Over the next several days we'll begin to get into some of the root causes and reasons behind this epidemic and begin to talk about what we can do about it.

Check out the next post in this series HERE.

The information shared here has been culled from multiple surveys from Barna, Focus on the Family, Maranatha and Fuller Seminary among others.

Why So Many Church Staffers Are Unhappy

It  happened again today. Twice. Two different guys in different states contacted me to catch up. And once again the conversation turned to an all too familiar tale. They are growing to resent anything having to do with professional ministry and they have either left ministry or are seriously thinking about it. And it breaks my heart.

These are guys who came up under me, one in my college group and one interned at a large church where I was on staff. They were leaders at every level. They were passionate and motivated. They did all the grunt work, finished seminary, paid dues, sacrificed so much, and now they are... done. Or at least real close to being done.

And they are not alone. Surveys consistently place the number of ministers leaving ministry every month in America between 1500 and 1800. That's over 20,000 per year or one about every 2-3 hours. And while a good many of this number are senior pastors, I would estimate that at least half or more are actually associate pastors of every persuasion, from worship to students, from pastoral care to missions, and everything in between. These are the folks I want to talk about. Why so much frustration, so much discontent? Why are they so unhappy and who or what is to blame?

Truthfully, there is not one easy answer to these questions. But after years of seeing this up close and personal, I do believe there are some common themes that are present in these situations more often than not. So over the next week or so I'm going to address one big issue every day. So let's put down our preconceived ideas and come to the table with open hearts and open minds and see if we can't at least begin a great conversation about why so many church staffers are so unhappy. No one seems to be talking about this huge issue and nothing will ever change if we can't at least talk about it. So let's talk.

See the next post in this series HERE.

Is it just me or are you seeing a trend in this area as well?

Leadership Trumps Experience

If you're looking to hire someone for a senior/leadership position at your church or school or business or whatever, let me share three simple words with you: leadership trumps experience. That's true every single time and twice on Sundays. In this type of situation, give me the option between someone who knows a lot about a certain field or skill set vs someone who is a great leader and learner? I'll take the leader every single time.

The reason is simple. It's much easier to teach a leader almost anything than it is to teach a skilled non-leader how to be a leader. It's not impossible, but it's such a long shot that the first choice is a no-brainer. Leaders learn. If they don't know the answer they find someone who does. They get things done. They build teams of highly skiiled people around them. They have exponential impact and raise the level of everyone around them.

Ideally, you want leadership AND experience, but trust me, if you have to choose, go with leadership every single time. Do it now and thank me later.

Do you agree or disagree with this line of thought and why? Would love to hear your personal experiences in this area.